LNG has made impact relating to politics,
especially international relations, as influenced by geographical factors. Because,
Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum products has been in control with almost all
countries with the Governments, and further they have added Natural Gas
business too into Government Subject. Private Players are merely working like
an investor and contributing 3-4% average in developing countries. And in
developed countries too, their investment share is not too high and that too
depend on Government’s preference. That
is why, Oil & Gas business is playing major role in Geopolitics - rivalry
or promise settlement; I mean, the counties are friendly can import Crude Oil
and LNG if they have good relation where the American Stamp is in favor of
both; If not, the deal is at risk; You know what I am talking, Iran is an
example; Russia is an Example for Europe supply.
“Geopolitics”
meant “the study of how factors such as geography and economics influence
politics and relations between nations.”
Now it means politics among (not just between) nations and rivalries for
international power. A geopolitically successful
nation delivers on promises to allies and threats to rivals or loses allies and
strengthens rivals. And, earlier weapon was Crude Oil and now it’s is LNG, an
added weapon to settle the score between the Countries.
The USA
has some different definition & Russia has the same logic – but I have a
question – “Can Cheap Oil will bring peace and development”? Crude oil prices
are at a four-year low and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices have also fallen
since the beginning of 2014.
Let me
take this LNG Geopolitics in two parts – Firstly, Geopolitics of American –
Europe and Russian impact. Sinking oil prices have put extra pressure on
Russia’s government. Over two-thirds of Moscow’s state budgets come from taxes
on Russian oil and gas firms. Destabilized oil revenues have caused the Ruble
to fall 41 percent against the Dollar over the past year, creating fear that
the economy could fall into a recession in 2015 which is worst then the past
recession hit in the region. The World Bank sees a recession as likely,
indicating it expects the Russian economy to shrink by .7 percent. Fears over
Russia’s economic vitality have caused mass capital outflow, totaling to some
$85 billion in 2014. And with lucrative energy projects like the South Stream
pipeline on hold, Russian Government have to find ways to lessen his country’s
exposure to turbulent oil markets. Thus European nations are increasingly - and
justifiably - worried about the impending winter months when Russia could
ratchet up the pressure on Europe, as it has done in the past, by imposing
another gas halt with the consequent loss of life and negative economic
impacts. However, instead of sending a clear message that LNG export licenses
and American energy leadership are coming, the U.S. Senate has put off
addressing legislation on LNG exports until September, a risky delay when U.S.
LNG could be a life-saving game-changer for Europe.
And
secondly Geopolitics of Arab World – Indian Sub Continent – Africa and
Australian ; However, access to energy
sources is not the problem today for India, but India does face a problem,
given its heavy dependence on the Persian Gulf countries and Iran for sourcing
its oil and LNG. And, the problem is Sanction. A new theme is finding its way
to the Indian discourses on energy security, as is bound to happen, drifting in
from the West. Simply put, the United States is ending its dependence on oil
imports from the Middle East and the geopolitics of the Middle East could never
be the same again. The facts that could go into buttressing the thesis are
rather meager and yet a fairly good case can be made out of them. New sources
of fossil energy have appeared such as shale gas and new gas fields are being
discovered. Besides, the US, the world’s number one consumer, is attaining
self-sufficiency in LNG that may last for at least one century ahead. This
comes as a game changer. The old assumptions regarding the West’s dependence on
the steady flow of cheap oil from the Middle East and the politics that devolved
upon it is becoming redundant. Also, the Middle East’s share of the global
recoverable reserves is itself declining and is already below 16% while the
locus is shifting to the US, Canada, Brazil, Russia, Central Asia and other
countries. Conceivably, therefore, there is a method in the madness of the West
and it does not seem to be very different from what George Kennan wrote over
half a century ago – that control of the Middle East’s oil is extremely vital
for the West’s prosperity. So, far Oil Reserve is concerned middle east can
feed 5 Trillion Dollars Business every year, and this will enhance the
relationship with the world; If India makes the business with – Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, UAE and Oman for making a way to import LNG to India by proposed Oman
India Pipeline or by Ship; It will make – a- Geopolitical impact in Asia;
Because Gas imported in India will serve all SAARC Nations too. The major
Geopolitical impact of LNG supply to India will be more realistic ties with
Arab World with Republic of India leading to Australian Continent; Sinking
crude oil price as less demand from Middle East to USA and Europe as well as
India & China will force them to open their LNG supply to the market;
Private Players are ready to bag the contract; Let’s see who is lucky; Thank
You.
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